Indian tariff adjustment impact on domestic ferrous metals


   The Indian government on May 22 introduced tariffs on imports and exports of steel materials and products in a bid to ease the country's high inflation. At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not been alleviated. India is an important resource country of steel products in the world and occupies a place in the global steel industry. Its tariff adjustment is bound to impact the international steel industry again.

    Impact on steel market: India's steel output ranks the top in the world and has a certain amount of exports. Its steel exports have imposed tariffs, which has boosted international steel prices. In addition, it has a promotion effect on China's steel export, similar to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If India's steel export is reduced, China's steel export will bring alternative opportunities, especially plate, which is conducive to easing the market pressure of China's steel industry.

    Impact on coking coal market: India's largest source of coking coal is Australia, accounting for 82% of its imports in 2021; However, the Australian coal ban is currently implemented in China, and the main source countries are Russia and Mongolia. The coal source overlap between China and India is limited, so it is expected that the squeeze effect of India's coking coal tax exemption policy on China is small. In terms of coke, China's import and export volume of coke is very limited. Although India's cancellation of import tariff on coke is beneficial to China's coke export business, its impact is also negligible.

    Impact on iron ore market: The tariff increase boosted iron ore prices in the short term, but the supply impact on overseas and domestic mining markets was relatively limited. The proportion of India's domestic iron ore output and export is basically stable. In recent years, the change of external supply is not very big, and the enthusiasm of local miners to improve production is strong. In the future, the ore supply will still improve, and the short-term disturbance will not change the increase of supply. For the domestic side, the import from India shows a reduction trend as a whole, even if the short-term significant reduction, its impact on China's iron ore supply is limited, relatively clear is that after the reduction of Indian ore will force steel mills to adjust the furnace structure, pellets or will turn to domestic ore.

    New Delhi: The Indian government on May 22 introduced tariffs on imports and exports of steel materials and products in a bid to ease the country's high inflation, according to the Finance Ministry. The import tax rate of coking coal and coke will be reduced from 2.5% and 5% to 0 tariff; The export tariff on hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated plate coils over 600 mm in width will be increased from 0% to 15%. The export tariff on iron ore, pellets, pig iron, rod and wire and some stainless steel products will also be increased to varying degrees.

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